You see. When it comes to transacting,
both parties want the best deal possible.
If I’m the buyer, I want to buy at the lowest
price while you as the seller want to sell at the highest price.
The same applies in forex trading.
As a forex trader, we’re engaging in a
transaction of currencies. Well, it’s not really currencies but just a piece of
contract in digital form.
But you get the point.
When you’re going long on the EUR/USD, you want
to be buying it at the lowest point possible, right? On the other hand, if I’m
having an opposite bias to yours, I want to be shorting the EUR/USD at the
highest point possible.
This is what happens in a typical economic
transaction. Everyone’s trying to protect his own interest.
That’s why you must know “pullback” as a forex
trader in order to be able to get the best deal from the markets. Otherwise,
you’re going to be ripped off.
What is a pullback, you ask?
Simple. A pullback is a short-term move in the
opposite direction of the longer-term trend.
And what has this to do with getting the best
deal in forex trading?
Let’s assume the GBP/USD is in a super strong
uptrend currently, and you’re looking to join the trend to get a piece of the
pie.
Do you simply jump straight in? No, you don’t.
You want to wait for a pullback, which is a temporary dip in the trend, before
you smash the buy button.
That way, you’re buying at a relatively
favorable price.
Similarly, when you’re looking to short the
USD/JPY that is already trending down, entering at a pullback which is the
temporary rise in the trend is certainly more advantageous.
You see that?
A pullback offers us an opportunity to enter the
market at a better price, if not the best price.
After all, the goal of a forex trader is to
manage risk as well as possible while obtaining the best entry price for each
trade to maximize the risk-reward. Would you agree?
Let’s talk about some of the pros of trading a
pullback.
Aside from entering the trade at a possibly best
price (which most amateur forex traders don’t care about), what other benefits
do you get?
Improved risk-reward
When you enter a trade at pullback, it has more
room to run in your direction. You’re going to get a better potential reward
when the distance between your entry and profit target increases.
Too abstract? Let me illustrate with numbers.
We have two forex traders here —Alex and Bobby.
Both of them are looking to short the USD/JPY because of the political
uncertainty in the country.
Currently, the USD/JPY is running at 104.50.
Alex’s not read about this article, he has no idea what a pullback is so he
jumps into the trade straight at the market price of 104.50. He sets his
stop-loss at 105 and profit target at 103.50. That translates to a 1:2
risk-reward ratio. Pretty decent, huh?
Now, let’s look at Bobby. He prefers to wait and
will only enter when the price pulls back to 104.70. He has the same stop-loss
and profit target as Alex.
The difference is that, now he’s getting a
better risk-reward ratio of 1:4!
Fewer premature knock-outs
Now that Bobby gets more room for the potential
reward off the market, he can afford to give up some.
Here’s what I mean.
Bobby thinks that the forex market is more
volatile than usual because of someone’s tweets. A 30-pip stop may get him
knocked out early.
So he decided to set his stop-loss at 105.10.
Another 10 pips to cushion the market shock.
His risk-reward ratio now becomes 1:3. However,
as compared to Alex, the likelihood of Bobby getting stopped out prematurely by
the market is lower.
Bobby can afford to have a wider stop without
jeopardizing his risk-reward.
All because Bobby is trading at pullback.
Bobby is smart. Be like Bobby.
Higher probability entries
The reason why the market pulls back is often
because the current price has gone too far from the average.
What does it imply?
When the pullback ends, the market is likely to
(often will) continue moving in the direction of the initial move.
This is especially true when you see a strong
signal like reversal candlestick pattern at the critical level following a
pullback. Because all signs are pointing to price bouncing from that point,
you’re getting a very high-probability entry.
Though that doesn’t happen every time, it
happens often enough for any level of forex traders to pay attention to it.
I didn’t know it when I first started out. But
now, pullback is a killer tool in my forex arsenal.
Of course, every coin has two sides.
I’m not going to hide the cons of pullback from
you. In fact, I’m going to be frank, and share with you some of the downsides
of trading pullback.
However…
That doesn’t mean you should abandon pullback
given that the pros far outweigh the cons.
Less trading opportunities
Sometimes, markets don’t pull back but just keep
going. Generally, you will have less trading opportunities trading pullback as
compared to those who don’t.
More missed trades
When the market doesn’t pull back to trigger
your entry, but keeps going in the direction as you predicted, it can really
test your nerves!
But remember, missing out on some trades is
better than over-trading.
Let’s get practical now.
We’re going to look at the 4 types of pullback
entry strategies you can utilize immediately. I believe they can take your
forex trading to a whole new level.
So, please pay 100% attention.
4 Types of Pullback Entry Strategies
1. Structural pullback entry without candlestick
signals
From the two charts above, you can see that
right after the market pulled back to the structural level, the price quickly
spiked.
There was no candlestick pattern formed prior to
the spike that would give us a sign of price reversal so that we could be
“ready” to get in.
If you’re doing a “blind entry”, meaning, simply
set your entry right a tad above (long) or below (short) the structural level
when the market pulls back, you’re going to get a very high potential reward.
2. Structural pullback entry with candlestick
signals
This time, the market was kind enough to give us
a hint.
When the prices pulled back to the structural
level, a reversal candlestick pattern was formed. That’s a sign that the
structural level is going to hold and prices will reverse.
You’re going to get a safer entry spot than
those who do “blind entry” if you know how to recognize a candlestick reversal
pattern.
If you don’t already know candlestick patterns,
head to School-JCP on this JCP app to learn. If you’re reading this article
somewhere on the internet, you can download the JCP app (for free) here.
3. Pullback to the mean with candlestick signals
If you’re a finance student, you will know this
—prices eventually revert to their average levels (mean).
Moving average or trendline is a useful tool to
identify the mean price.
When prices pull back to the mean followed by a
candlestick signal, your expectation will almost always become reality. Just
look at the two charts above.
4. 50% Pullback
This is going to make your chart look
sophisticated.
You see. Prices have a tendency to pull back to
approximately 50% of the previous major move. It’s said that traders who have
profited from the straight-up or straight-down move are now collectively realizing
their profits.
That’s why a short-term pullback occurs.
When prices pull back to the 50% level, they’re
likely going to reverse and continue moving in the initial direction.
We can use the Fibonacci retracement tool to
identify the 50% level. Quite ironically, the 50% is not a Fibonacci number
though. Perhaps prices have pulled back to the 50% level for enough times to
make it an important number that is worth traders’ attention.
As a smart forex trader, you definitely don’t
want to ignore these 4 powerful pullback entry strategies, do you?
Wish you lots of success!